These documents are contributed by ADBL.org members. They are for informational purposes only.

Archived (out-of-date) models
My subscriber and revenue model (as of Feb 21, 2005) is available as a raw excel file or Microsoft-centric HTML. I took great pains to make sure management-derived numbers are marked as such. Sources are included as comments in selected cells. If you make the model prettier or add valuations, please make it available to the community by e-mailing me at bill (the-at-sign) billkatz.com.

I've included a simple price-to-revenue valuation model described by Kwatinetz in his book "The Big Tech Score." Hopefully we can add other valuation models once we have better models for operational expenses and cash flow.

Although I included some a la carte numbers, I've largely sidestepped the issue by using a recurrent revenue percentage previously given by management. In the Nov 2004 prospectus, Audible management said iTunes accounted for a 10% (and growing) portion of their content and services revenue. Given the way iTunes is expanding, a la carte purchases may provide additional kick to subscriber growth that looks very good.

Feel free to join the discussion on this model at this ADBL.org forum topic. (Free registration is required of non-ADBL.org members)

Archived Material

Peter has generously provided an update of his financial model following the Q4 2003 conference call (Feb 2004). You can download the raw excel file or look at the HTML version.

Thore developed a valuation model for Audible using estimated growth rates and margins. You can download the raw excel file or look at the HTML version.

Doug has provided an excellent financial model, revised after Q1 2003. You can download the raw excel file or look at the HTML version.